...and keeps the technical lid on the pair at the day's high

The USDCHF moved to a new low for the year today and in the process reached the lowest level since August 2015. That low reached 0.92639. The swing low from August 2015 reached 0.9256. Traders seem to be leaning against that multi-year low - at least on the first look. Looking at the weekly chart, the level certainly sticks out. I would not be surprised to see buyers sticking another toe in the water against that risk level.

Drilling all the way back to the hourly chart (see chart below) if there is a rebound (remember the SNB is probably not happy with the strength vs the greenback), a well tested trend line and the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below), will give bullish/bearish clues.

Today, the trend line was tested and held (see 5 and 6 red circle in the chart). That trend line currently comes in at 0.9333 and moving lower.

Regarding the 100 hour MA (blue line), the price has not traded above that MA since Jan. 23rd. The 100 hour MA comes in at 0.9340 currently and moving lower.

A closer level to give dip buyers against the 2015 low more confidence, comes in at 0.9288. That was the lows from Jan 25 and in trading yesterday (see green circles on the hourly chart above). If the price can get and stay above that level, there could be more buying. If not, I would expect another test of the August 2015 low.

So

  • key support target found buyers.
  • There is a close hurdle at 0.9288
  • Key resistance exists at topside trend line on the hourly and the 100 hour MA.

The battle lines are set.

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