The AUDUSD on Friday and Monday moved up to test the 100 day MA (currently at 0.6687) after a sharp trend move higher on Thursday and Friday.
During trading yesterday, the price moved away from the 100 day MA, but it did not come without a rotation back to the downside on the back of the rockets flying through the air in Ukraine, with one (ended up being friendly fire from Ukraine), that crossed the border into Poland killing two. However, buyers did lean ahead of the 100 day MA, and bounced higher.
Since then, the price action today is back to down, up and back down. The high today stalled ahead of the high from yesterday at 0.6797. The high reached 0.67923 before backing off.
The current price bar on the hourly chart reached 0.67404. The lows for the day reached 0.6729.
So what next?
Admittedly, the price action is choppy. There is apprehension above ahead of the high from yesterday. There is apprehension below. There is a swing area between 0.67168 and 0.67294. Below that comes the sharply rising 100 hour MA and the flat 100 day MA. They are near converged at 0.6687 area. Moving below those levels would hurt the bullish bias for the pair and have traders thinking more to the downside.
ON the topside, holding the swing area and staying away from the MAs would be the best scenario on a dip, but getting above the highs is still needed to give the buyers more confidence for more upside momentum.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart, the 38.2% of the move down from the 2022 high comes in at 0.6739 which is ahead of the lows today. If that level in the short term can hold support intraday, it would represent more of positive bias spin. The 0.6828 to 068597 are upside targets on more upside momentum.
PS the last time the price of the AUDUSD moved above the 100 day MA it closed above for 2 trading days. Yesterday was the 1st close above the 100 day MA. Be aware.
