Just yesterday, the AUDUSD was running to the upside spurred on by more opening hopes in China, higher stocks, and some technical breaks.
Looking at the hourly chart above, yesterday the price raced back above the 200 and 100 hour moving averages (green and blue lines), and also the 200 day moving average (green overlay line currently at 0.68514). The break above the 200 day moving average was the first since June 2022 (see green line in the chart below).
The break above the 200 day moving average should've been a catalyst for further upside momentum with high price from December, and the 50% midpoint of the 2022 trading range at 0.6915 as the next key target. However, when the price high of 0.68859 fell short of the December high of 0.68922, and the 200 day MA was rebroken - this time to the downside - the buyers turn to sellers.
Today, after falling to test the rising 100 hour MA and bouncing, sellers returned after the better than expected US data, and the 100 hour MA was broken (blue line at 0.6799). The current hourly bar has now seen the price move below the 200 hour moving average at 0.67717. Stay below that level increases the bearish bias and will have traders looking toward an old swing area between 0.6738 and 0.67437 (see red numbered circles on the hourly chart at the top of the post).
Sellers are retaking more and more control starting with the failure above the 200 day moving average, and continuing with the brakes below the 100 hour moving average and 200 hour moving average. The next key target area is in sight. Move below that swing area between 0.6738 and 0.67437, open the door for further downside momentum.
