EURUSD retraces the gains to the upside on failed break

The EURUSD moved higher from the start of the day and in the process moved above the swing area between 1.0866 and 1.0874 and the extreme high from last week at 1.08868. That opened the door to the upside where the next target would come near 1.09040 (see weekend video here starting at 6:24 for the review of the levels in play for the EURUSD this week).

Going back to March and April 2022 (see daily chart below), lows and highs came in between 1.09356 and 1.09438. The high price today extended to 1.0926 - before that area - stalled and rotated back to the downside.

EURUSD extended toward the swing level from March and April

Subsequently, after moving back below the extreme price of 1.08864, selling has continued with the rotation back into the up-and-down consolidation area that dominated trading over the last 6+ trading days (between 1.0760 and 1.0874 - see Red Box on the hourly chart at the top). The low price just reached 1.08524. That took the price just below the closing level from Friday at 1.0854. The lap to the upside has been fully retraced.

What next?

The swing area between 1.0866 and 1.0874 is reestablished as resistance along with the extreme high from last Wednesday's trade 1.08864. It would take a move above all those levels and stay above those levels to increase the bias to the upside. However, sellers are now back in control on the failed break.

On the downside, the 100 hour MA comes in at 1.0828 the 200 hour MA comes in at 1.08172. Both those MAs would need to be broken to increase the bearish bias. Note that on Thursday and Friday, traders (for the most part) used the 200 hour MA for support (there was a failed break on Thursday, which was quickly reversed). That MA will be a key barometer on the downside this week for both the buyers and sellers.