EU oil ban speculation puts crude oil on the brink of a break

I don't believe in any market moves that happen right before the Fed but I've been amazed by the strength in oil in the past few weeks despite:

1. Weak GDP readings and falling economic data Economic Data Economic data typically comes in the form of news releases that are disseminated daily. This information is extremely valuable to retail and institutional forex traders, given the influence such data has on currency rates.Most of the major economic events that are released are reported by sovereign governments throughout the globe. Moreover, there are several economic data points that are released by private organizations that can also move the market.By and large, when new information becomes available the value of a currency pair will change to reflect a potentially new equilibrium created by traders. This information that changes the value of a currency pair can ultimately come in many forms, with economic indicators or data being primary drivers.Why Economic Data Matters in ForexEconomic data is an important barometer that investors can use to measure the performance of an economy. This in turn can influence currency rates.For example, the stronger the economic data, the more likely growth will rise in the country, causing a currency to strengthen. If Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the United States is high, this will help cause the US dollar to rise in value.The reverse is also true. Typically, weaker economic data can forecast a slowing of growth. What traders’ attempt, when trading economic data is to measure how economic indicators are perceived relative to expectations.Before nearly every economic release, the market generally prices in is the median expectation reflected by analysts and economists. These known variables are simply expectations, and the unknown is the actual release. Since currency pairs can move significantly based on new data, traders are always trying to anticipate where the actual figures will come in upon release.Changes to economic data will also filter down to potential changes to interest rates by a central bank. Overall, economic announcements from the United States and Eurozone are heavily watched as they will influence the perceptions of market participants which help drive interest rates and other monetary policy by the Federal Reserve or European Central Bank (ECB) respectively. Economic data typically comes in the form of news releases that are disseminated daily. This information is extremely valuable to retail and institutional forex traders, given the influence such data has on currency rates.Most of the major economic events that are released are reported by sovereign governments throughout the globe. Moreover, there are several economic data points that are released by private organizations that can also move the market.By and large, when new information becomes available the value of a currency pair will change to reflect a potentially new equilibrium created by traders. This information that changes the value of a currency pair can ultimately come in many forms, with economic indicators or data being primary drivers.Why Economic Data Matters in ForexEconomic data is an important barometer that investors can use to measure the performance of an economy. This in turn can influence currency rates.For example, the stronger the economic data, the more likely growth will rise in the country, causing a currency to strengthen. If Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the United States is high, this will help cause the US dollar to rise in value.The reverse is also true. Typically, weaker economic data can forecast a slowing of growth. What traders’ attempt, when trading economic data is to measure how economic indicators are perceived relative to expectations.Before nearly every economic release, the market generally prices in is the median expectation reflected by analysts and economists. These known variables are simply expectations, and the unknown is the actual release. Since currency pairs can move significantly based on new data, traders are always trying to anticipate where the actual figures will come in upon release.Changes to economic data will also filter down to potential changes to interest rates by a central bank. Overall, economic announcements from the United States and Eurozone are heavily watched as they will influence the perceptions of market participants which help drive interest rates and other monetary policy by the Federal Reserve or European Central Bank (ECB) respectively. Read this Term
2. China lockdowns
3. Terrible equity market sentiment Market Sentiment Market sentiment is a psychological attitude that captures the mood and attitude of investors, usually towards a specific security or asset. This sentiment can be segregated into a bullish or bearish mood in the market. As such, certain trading activity or price behavior will also impact market sentiment.For example, bullish sentiment indicates a growth in the price of securities, whereas a bearish sentiment sees falling prices. Many traders use broader market sentiment or sentiment data to help identify trends that may not seem apparent to many other investors.This can give way to investor sentiment indices or contrarian signals surrounding assets, which helps inform investors to make more educated decisions.Using Market Sentiment Market sentiment is not always grounded in fundamentals and for this reason is seen as inferior to other methods trading. This form of investing instead deals with emotion and feelings of traders.However, many traders, specifically shorter-term investors, will rely on market sentiment. Sentiment traders put a lot of merit into these trends, just as other investors look for specific signals or fundamental barometers to inform their decision making.This is due to the powerful impact of sentiment on short-term indicators or attitudes. Many investors also prefer taking contrarian views and positions, actively trading against an engrained market consensus.In this instance, if the broader market is buying a security, a contrarian investor would instead sell, and vice versa.This is a popular technique in the stock market, which can characterize stocks as either over or undervalued, based in large part by market sentiment. Market sentiment is a psychological attitude that captures the mood and attitude of investors, usually towards a specific security or asset. This sentiment can be segregated into a bullish or bearish mood in the market. As such, certain trading activity or price behavior will also impact market sentiment.For example, bullish sentiment indicates a growth in the price of securities, whereas a bearish sentiment sees falling prices. Many traders use broader market sentiment or sentiment data to help identify trends that may not seem apparent to many other investors.This can give way to investor sentiment indices or contrarian signals surrounding assets, which helps inform investors to make more educated decisions.Using Market Sentiment Market sentiment is not always grounded in fundamentals and for this reason is seen as inferior to other methods trading. This form of investing instead deals with emotion and feelings of traders.However, many traders, specifically shorter-term investors, will rely on market sentiment. Sentiment traders put a lot of merit into these trends, just as other investors look for specific signals or fundamental barometers to inform their decision making.This is due to the powerful impact of sentiment on short-term indicators or attitudes. Many investors also prefer taking contrarian views and positions, actively trading against an engrained market consensus.In this instance, if the broader market is buying a security, a contrarian investor would instead sell, and vice versa.This is a popular technique in the stock market, which can characterize stocks as either over or undervalued, based in large part by market sentiment. Read this Term

Yet oil is a hiccup away from the best daily close since March 25. More importantly, this narrowing wedge pattern is in danger of breaking to the upside. I would like to see a rise above $110 to confirm it but this is a chart that bears very close watching. Reports suggested the EU is on the verge of banning Russian oil with a six month deadline and could make the announcement tomorrow.