EURJPY moves below its 200 day MA at 140.10

As outlined in previous post, the USDJPY USD/JPY The USD/JPY is the currency pair encompassing the dollar of the United States of America (symbol $, code USD), and the Japanese yen of Japan (symbol ¥, code JPY). The pair’s rate indicates how many Japanese yen are needed in order to purchase one US dollar. For example, when the USD/JPY is trading at 100.00, it means 1 US dollar is equivalent to 100 Japanese yen. The US dollar (USD) is the world’s most traded currency, whilst the Japanese yen is the world’s third most traded currency, resulting The USD/JPY is the currency pair encompassing the dollar of the United States of America (symbol $, code USD), and the Japanese yen of Japan (symbol ¥, code JPY). The pair’s rate indicates how many Japanese yen are needed in order to purchase one US dollar. For example, when the USD/JPY is trading at 100.00, it means 1 US dollar is equivalent to 100 Japanese yen. The US dollar (USD) is the world’s most traded currency, whilst the Japanese yen is the world’s third most traded currency, resulting Read this Term is trending away from its 200 day MA and is also below the 50% retracement on the back of the Bank of Japan shift in policy with regard to the target 10 year yield .

For the EURJPY EUR/JPY The EUR/JPY is the currency pair encompassing the European Union’s single currency, the euro (symbol €, code EUR), and the Japanese yen of Japan (symbol ¥, code JPY). The pair’s rate indicates how many Japanese yen are needed in order to purchase one euro. For example, when the EUR/JPY is trading at 125.00, it means 1 euro is equivalent to 125 Japanese yen. The euro (EUR) is the world’s second most traded currency, whilst the Japanese yen (JPY) is the world’s third most traded currency, resulti The EUR/JPY is the currency pair encompassing the European Union’s single currency, the euro (symbol €, code EUR), and the Japanese yen of Japan (symbol ¥, code JPY). The pair’s rate indicates how many Japanese yen are needed in order to purchase one euro. For example, when the EUR/JPY is trading at 125.00, it means 1 euro is equivalent to 125 Japanese yen. The euro (EUR) is the world’s second most traded currency, whilst the Japanese yen (JPY) is the world’s third most traded currency, resulti Read this Term it too is lower, but technically, the pair has more work to do to increase the bearish bias.

Looking at the daily chart above, the swing low for the year came in March near 124.384. The price did move higher, but more in a up and down volatile fashion. The high price extended to 148.394 on October 21. The price has since corrected more to the downside since then with lower highs. However, there has also been some reactionary moves back higher as well.

For example, just last week, the price moved higher and moved toward a retest of the November high at 147.07 area.

However, today's run to the downside has seen the price break below the 100 day MA at 142.437 with momentum, and is now cracking below the 200 day MA (green line) at 140.106 as well. The low price just reached 139.74 (current price is at 139.77).

What next?

Stay below the 200 day MA (green line) is the best case scenario for the sellers. Stay below keeps the seller in firm control.

On the downside, the 38.2% of the move up from March low comes in at 139.22. That is the next key target to get to an through if the sellers are to take more control. Below that, the swing lows from the month of September at 138.05 and 137.29 would be the next targets, followed by the 50% of the 2022 trading range at 136.389.

All those levels would need to be broken to increase the bearish bias, and shift the bias more in favor of the sellers.

What is risk now?

Should the price move back above the 200 day moving average, sellers would look toward the 140.73 to 140.96 area (see yellow area) as resistance. That area is home to the swing lows from both October and early December.

Sellers would not want the price to move back above that floor area. Move above would weaken the bias to the downside and have traders looking back toward the 100 day moving average at 142.437.

Overall, sellers are making a play below the 200 day MA. They have work to do to increase the bearish bias, but the shift is underway.

PS the USDJPY is breaking to a new low and in the process is below the lower support target at 131.246. Sellers keep the pressure on that pair.