After the EURUSD fell to within 14 pips of the 1st week of January 2017 swing low at 1.0339 yesterday, the EURUSD corrected higher to a swing high of 1.04189 during the European morning session today.
However over the last 5 hours, the price has since retraced the gains, and the pair trades back near the closing level from yesterday at 1.0380.
The high price today stalled ahead of the 38.2% retracement of the move down from Wednesday's high to the low reached yesterday. That retracement level comes in at 1.04383. The inability to reach the 38.2% retracement is not in the favor of the buyers. That retracement level is the minimum if the buyers are to take back more control.
Taking a broader look at the price action this week, the first 3 trading days the week saw the EURUSD trade above and below the near converged 100 and 200 hour MAs (blue and green lines). The market was non-trending.
Finally on Wednesday, after a volatile up and down session after the CPI data, the price made a final dip below the 100/200 converged moving averages, and worked its way down toward the lower swing area between 1.04709 and 1.04904. On Thursday that area was broken which led to increased selling pressure down to the low for the week.
So overall, the correction higher today off of the near double bottom was a modest attempt by the buyers to find a bottom. However, until the price get above the 38.2% at 1.04383 (and ultimately above the 1.04709 level as well), the sellers still have more control. The buyers may be in the game above the January 2017 low of 1.0339, but there are not really winning from a control standpoint.
By the way break below the 2017 low would take the EURUSD to the lowest level since 2002.