The EURUSD is trading lower for the 5th consecutive day in a row. It is down 9 of the last 11 days. Over that time, the price moved from 1.1482 to the low today of 1.11207 (362 pips). The pair closed at 1.1144 yesterday. The current price is at 1.1152. The high for the day reached 1.1173. The low reached 1.11207. The range was in a low 35 pip range at the start of the North American session. That was narrow compared to the 22-day average at 68 pips. The current range has moved to a more respectable 52 pips since the start of the session.
Looking at the hourly chart, the pair is still running away from the 100 hour MA. ON Monday, the pair tested that MA line, but found sellers. On Wednesday, the line was sniffed, but fell short of it and the downside accelerated especially after the FOMC decision and press conference. The selling intensified even more yesterday.
The 38.2% of the last run lower from Wednesday high comes in at 1.11931. That would be the minimum retracement target that would give any buyers some relief. Absent that and the sellers hold the strongest hand.
Looking at the daily chart below, the pair broke below the 2021 low at 1.11853. That dovetails fairly closely to the 38.2% retracement target at 1.1193. That area will be eyed as risk for shorts today.
On the downside, the next target would come above and below the 1.1100 area. Move below that level opens the downside even more (risk would be ratcheted down for the shorts as the trend continues). The 1.0980 to 1.1018 is the next major target area.
On the topside, the 1.11853 to 1.11931 is resistance. Move above, and the buyers can breathe a sigh of relief. Stay below and they are gasping for air.
Helping the downside is the Fed and markets expectations for a tighter Fed going forward, ECB reluctance to move still and Russia/Ukraine fears.
