EURUSD falls to swing area

Looking at the weekly chart of the EURUSD , the pair this week has seen a sharp move lower that has taken the price below the 2020 low at 1.06347, and into a swing area that is above the extreme lows from the end of 2016 early 2017.

That swing area comes between 1.04617 at 1.05187. The low price today, this week reached 1.04703 just above the low of that swing area. The current price trades at 1.0509. Those swing lows happened between March 2015 and March 2017 (see red numbered circles in the chart above).

The extreme low reached 1.0339 in the first week of 2017 (that is the lowest level going back to 2002) . That low level would be targeted if the 1.04617 level can be broken and stay broken going forward.

Moving from the weekly chart all the way to the five minute chart below, the EURUSD price action this week has seen a steady move to the downside. Note the green line (200 bar moving average). There have been tries above that green line on each day going back to last Friday (see red shaded areas), but also notice how after the breaks above, the momentum has not been all that great, and moving back below the moving averages led to lower levels fairly quickly as buyers gave up and sellers jumped back on the trend bandwagon (to the downside).

The 200 bar moving average currently comes in at 1.0526 (see green line). Earlier today, the price did move above that moving average, but quickly reversed back to the downside and use the moving average as resistance. The lower 100 bar moving average comes in at 1.0515.

Needless to say getting above both those levels would be needed to give the dip buyers against the longer term support from the weekly chart (that area is the yellow area on the 5 minute chart below), any chance - and any confidence - that there will be continued upside probing.

Once again, the price has to stay above those moving averages to keep the confidence of a correction moving forward. Absent that, and the sellers are simply winning. The buyers are losing.

EURUSD still below the 100/200 bar moving averages