EURUSD off to a quiet start with a bullish bias

The EURUSD is steady vs the Friday close. The pair is currently trading at 1.1051.

Looking at the hourly chart, the pair moved up to test the March high on Thursday of last week, but fell short of that target. The high for the week of reached 1.11369 which was just short of the March 2 high at 1.11429.

The subsequent fall on Friday saw the pair test and crack below the 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above - currently at 1.1018), but fall short of the 200 hour moving average (green line). The 200 hour MA is currently at 1.0998 just below the natural support at 1.1000. The price corrected higher into the close on Friday.

Of note technically from last week, is the price moved back above its 200 hour moving average (green line)on Wednesday and based against that moving average level at the lows on that day. The dip on Friday also stayed above that MA at the session lows.

As a result, the buyers are still in play - and in control - in the short term above those MA levels. It would take a move below the 100 hour MA at 1.1018 currently and the 200 hour MA at 1.0998 (and below the natural support at 1.1000) to shift the bias more in favor of the sellers. Until then, the tilt of the bias is in the buyers favor.

Topside targets would include the 38.2% of the move down from February 10 high at 1.10684. Above that and traders will eye 1.1106 to 1.11207, and then the highs for the month between 1.11369 and 1.11429.

Fundamentally over the weekend, ECB de Guindos told German newspaper Handelsblatt, that the ECB would take action if it sees second-round inflation effects, and a rise in the medium-term inflation expectations.

When asked about the risks to the European financial system due to the war in Ukraine, de Guindos said:

  • There were no liquidity bottlenecks, companies were issuing bonds, and that stocks were volatile but without dramatic developments.