The GBPUSD fell below the lows from March 14 and March 15 down to 1.29987 (call it 1.3000) on Friday and moved to the lowest level since November 5, 2020 in the process (to 1.29811). However, momentum could be sustained and the price rallied into the close at 1.30338.
Today, the GBPUSD price moved to the downside into the early European session, and in the process moved back below the 1.29987 level to a low price of 1.2988. That low was above the Friday low. Moving back above 1.3000 level gave the sellers cause for pause. That led to a rotation back to the upside. However, the price rise stalled ahead of its falling 100 hour moving average (blue line) currently at 1.30613 (and moving lower). The current price is trading at 1.3032 taking the GBPUSD back to unchanged on the day.
What now?
The 1.3000 is still hard to ignore in remains a barometer for buyers and sellers. I know there have been to failed breaks with one on Friday and one today, but getting and staying below that level would still increase the bearish bias. The low for, the North American session low as only been able to get down to about 1.30168.
On the topside, ahead of the falling 100 hour moving average at 1.30613, traders will be watching what happens near the swing area between 1.30419 and 1.3049 (see red numbered circles in the chart above).
If sellers on any rebound are able to hold below that level, and the last three hours have seen that, that is in the favor of sellers in the short term for the GBPUSD. A move above however will have traders looking toward the aforementioned falling 100 hour moving average. Get above that level in there should be more upside corrective probing with the 200 hour moving average 1.30933 as the next major target to get to and through.
Last week, the price did move above that 200 hour moving average level on Tuesday, but could not sustain momentum after getting close to the the March 31 high near 1.31689.
So overall, there is some dip buying opportunities on the failed break below the 1.300 level. There is also some selling opportunities against the falling 100 hour moving average (and the lower swing area). Traders are battling it out with buyers and sellers both looking for the next shove.
In the meantime, dips may be brought and rallies may be sold with close stops on breaks below and above aforementioned technical levels.
