GBPUSD does what it's supposed to do yesterday. Now what?

The price action the GBPUSD yesterday did largely what you might expect it to do - technically at least.

The first move yesterday was lower and that low fell down toward the 100 hour MA (blue line). At the 100 hour MA, buyers leaned as risk could be defined and limited, and the price moved higher. That increases the levels important going forward.

The run back to the upside was able to extend above the high from Friday and a swing area between 1.3185 to 1.3194, but stalled right below the high from last week (Thursday) and another high going back to March 7. Those levels came in at 1.32108 (see green numbered circles). Sellers leaned as the risk could be defined and limited and the price moved back lower into the close. The ceiling increases the levels important going forward

For the day, the GBPUSD pair ended lower on the day, but the price action was down, up and down, and at the extremes, traders leaned (at the high and the low) where risk could be defined and limited.

That brings us to the new trading day.

How would a more bearish move look? (a higher dollar).

Looking at the 100 hour MA (which did hold support yesterday), it is also was near a trendline connecting the lows over the last three trading days. The low comes near 1.31354. Also just above that level is a swing area between 1.3138 and 1.31438.

If the price going lower, it needs to break below that cluster of support (and stay below).

  • The next target would be the 200 hour moving average at 1.31075 (green line in the chart above).
  • Move below that level and the 1.3080 to 1.30878 is the next swing area
  • Followed by the lower extreme area down to 1.2999 (call it 1.3000)

How would a more bullish move look?

  • Get above the 1.3188 to 1.31945 area would be a step in the more bullish direction.
  • Move above that area and the recent highs at 1.32108 becomes the obvious target.
  • Break above that and the 38.2% retracement 1.32448 and
  • the swing area near 1.3271 would be eyed.

Stay between 1.32108 above and the 100 hour MA and other support at 1.31354, and the buyers and sellers are still fighting, without a clear winner taking more control.