The GBPUSD has been trading above and below its 100 hour moving average for the last 4 trading days (blue line in the chart above). Each time, there has been modest upside momentum, but ultimately the breaks have failed with the price rotated back to the downside.
Having said that, the lows of this week have centered between 1.2465 and 1.2473. The 100 hour moving average is at 1.2515. So downside momentum has also been fairly limited as well on breaks back to the downside.
The market is clearly waiting for the next shove. That may not come until the FOMC decision at 2 PM ET.
If the price is bottoming, the falling 200 hour moving average at 1.2599 (call it 1.2600) and the high from last Friday at 1.26145 become the next upside targets to get to and through (see higher yellow area in the chart above). Above that the 38.2% retracement of the last trend move down from the April 21 high cuts across at 1.26698.
Getting above all those levels is required if the buyers are to be taken seriously. Absent that and the buyers are not really taking back enough control.
On the downside, a move below the low for the week at 1.2465 - followed by the low from last week at 1.24103 - would have the pair trading to the lowest level since July 2020. The door would be open for further downside momentum on those breaks and keep the sellers and the trend to the downside going.
