The NZDUSD moved to a new high going back to May 5 in the Asian session. The high price reached 0.65634. That was just short of the May 5 high at 0.65673 (which is also the high for the month of May).
The inability to extend above the May high turned buyers into sellers. The price rotated back to the downside, and after breaking below the swing high from May 25 at 0.65145 , the upward sloping trend line and the rising 100 hour moving average, the sellers took back control and push the price down to a new session low at 0.6482.
The price has since rebounded, and is currently back up retesting the broken 100 hour moving average.
That moving average is the new barometer for short-term traders today. Stay below and the sellers can continue to some comfort from the break below. Conversely, move back above, and the nervousness returns, as the bias switches back to be more in favor of the buyers.
Taking a broader look at the weekly chart below, the swing low from earlier this year (back in January) reached 0.6529. The high price from last week and this week extended above that old swing low. However, the run lower today has move back below that level. That level also is the the 38.2% retracement of the 2022 trading range.
With the 100 hour moving average at 0.65087, a move back above that level with momentum would have traders looking toward the 0.6529 level as another key barometer. Getting above that level would confirm the more bullish bias once again, and disappoint the sellers. The buyers would be in firm control above that level.
Recall from last week, the RBNZ raise rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday. The price initially moved higher on the news, but then erased those gains falling back down toward its 100 hour moving average (blue line on the hourly chart above). Again on Thursday, the price retested the 100 hour moving average on 2 separate occasions only to find buyers against the level.
On Friday, the price broke higher and today's high tested that April 5 target before rotating back to the downside.
