The NZDUSD moved above and closed above the 200 hour MA for the first time since May 5th yesterday.
Looking at the hourly chart, the momentum above the 200 hour MA (green line) yesterday saw the price move up to test the swing high from May 11. Sellers leaned against that high (creating a nice ceiling), but on the corrective move lower, the price held support against the low of a swing area at 0.63317 and bounced (see red numbered circles).
Today, the price action has been sideways to - more recently - down. The price on the move lower was able to break the 0.63317 level and has traded above and below that level over the last few hours as stocks tumble to the downside. However, the price is holding up fairly well given the sharp fall in equities, and the temptation to sell "risk" which tends to be currencies like the NZD.
So there is some reluctance, and that may be because traders are hoping that the 200 hour moving average (broken yesterday) can ultimately hold support.
However, note that if the 200 hour MA is rebroken to the downside, followed by a break of the 100 hour moving average at 0.62968, the bias shifts firmly back into the favor of the sellers.
For now, traders who got long on the break of the 200 hour moving average yesterday are nervous, but comforted that it could be worse.
For those longs, getting back above the 38.2% retracement of the May trading range at 0.6351 would give buyers some comfort. After that traders would need to see a move above the high from yesterday the high from May 11 near 0.6379 to think, there is something more to look forward to.
