Forex
The strongest to weakest of the major currencies

The GBP is the strongest of the major currencies for the 2nd consecutive day. The JPY is the weakest followed closely by the USD which was weaker yesterday as well. Stocks are on the rise today, helped by hopes of a China reopen in Shanghai as Covid cases are zero in quarantined area for the 3rd day. That news has also led to a rise in oil prices on expectations of increased demand in China on any reopening momentum. The damage from supply constraints on inflation from China, are being replaced with more supply concerns in the oil market, both of which are bad for inflation. Some relief, however, is being seen in the wheat and corn market. Wheat futures were up limit yesterday. Both are trading lower today.

US Fed officials including the Fed Chair Powell are scheduled to speak today (Powell speaks on inflation at a WSJ event at 2 PM ET). Other Fed officials scheduled to speak today include Bullard, Harker, Mester and Evans. Bullard and Mester are voters this year. Most/all Fed officials are onboard for 50 basis points at the next meeting or two. Bullard has expressed that he would like to see the Fed Funds rate up to 3.5% by year end. That trajectory implies a 50 BP hike at each of the 5 meetings left in 2022 (he is the most hawkish).

Today at the bottom of the hour retail sales will be eyed with expectations of 0.9% headline (0.4% core). Capacity utilization and industrial production will be released at 9:15 AM ET. National Association of homebuilders index will be released at 10 AM along with business inventory data.

US and European stocks are higher. US and European yields are higher. The German 10 years back above 1.0%. Gold is up for the 2nd consecutive day helped by the weaker dollar.

In Ukraine, the defenders of the Azovstal steelwork in Mariupol laid down their arms in surrender as Russia completes its assault on the city and and solidifies the path to Crimea.

A look around the markets is showing:

  • Spot gold is up $10.22 or 0.56% at $1834.30.
  • Silver is up $0.14 or 0.64% at $21.75
  • WTI crude oil is trading around $115. That's up about $0.75
  • Bitcoin is trading back above 30,000 at $30,413 that's up $680 or 2.29%

In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are trading higher (as per their futures contracts) after yesterday's mixed results where the S&P and NASDAQ fell while the Dow eked out a small gain.

  • Dow industrial average up 363 points after yesterdays at 26.76 point rise
  • S&P index up up 58 points after yesterdays -15.88 point decline
  • NASDAQ up 222 points after yesterdays -142.21 point decline

In the European equity markets, the major indices are trading higher:

  • German Dax up 1.5%
  • France's CAC up 1.3%
  • UK's FTSE 100 up 0.8%
  • Spain's Ibex up 1.3%
  • Italy's FTSE MIB +1.4%

In the US debt market, the yields are trading higher across the yield curve:

US yields
US yields are higher across the board

In the European debt market, the yields are also pushing to the upside with the German 10 year yield trading above 1.0%.

Europe
European 10Y yields are higher German yield above 1.0%