USDCHF down on the week. The pair is up 6 straight weeks

The USDCHF has been on a huge bullish run since the pair bottomed last during the week of March 27 at 0.91942.

Since then, the pair has ripped off 6 straight up weeks that has seen the pair move from a low 0.9194 to a high on Monday at 1.00637.

This week, as mentioned, the USDCHF pair did make a new cycle high yesterday, but closed lower. Today the pair is down again.

The USDCHF is actually on a 3 day losing streak with modest declines on Friday and again yesterday, but a bigger downside move lower today.

Buyers are giving up on the failure to new highs yesterday, and the move back below the close from last week at 1.0018 (lower week for the 1st time after 6 weeks of gains).

PS the close at 1.0018 was between a swing area going back to 2019 (see red numbered circles and yellow area on the weekly chart above) between 1.00137 and 1.00270. Bearish.

Is there a closer risk level with the price trading down at 0.9926 currently?

Drilling down to the hourly chart below, the price action today started to "kick the can" to the downside with more momentum. With the move, some key technical levels were broken.

The early catalyst was a break below the 100 hour MA (blue line currently at 0.9996). The pair then tested a swing area between 0.9961 and 0.9974, before taking another step lower that took the price below the 200 hour MA (green line) currently at 0.99484.

Breaking the 200 hour MA is a key break.

The price of the USDCHF has not traded below its 200 hour moving average since April 12 (see green line in the chart below). As a result, the break of that moving average is a key tilt in favor of the sellers at least in short-term. That bearish bias will remain as long as the price can stay below the 200 hour moving average (no failures!). It is the close risk now for sellers.

On more downside momentum, the 50% midpoint of the last trend move higher cuts across at 0.98862. That level also corresponds with swing highs from May 5 and May 6. Get below that level, and there is room for more downside probing.

SUMMARY: Sellers are making a play in the USDCHF pair.

  • The price is down 3 days in a row.
  • The price is lower for the first time after 6 weeks to the upside.
  • The price is below the 100 and 200 hour MA for the first time since April 12th over 1 months ago.

All those reasons give the sellers the control in the short term. Can they keep control by staying below the 200 hour MA. That is the close risk now for the sellers.

USDCHF moves below 200 hour MA. First time since April 12