As the market awaits the FOMC decision at 2 PM ET, the USDCHF is trading near its highs for the day and for the week just reached 1.00297. The high price yesterday extended to 1.0036.
Looking at the hourly chart, the price action initially moved to the downside in the Asian session, and in doing so entered within a wide swatch of swing highs and lows that was developed between May 9, and May 18. That area comes between 0.9961 and 0.99937. The price low extended to the low of that swing area at 0.9961, where support buyers did show up and push the price back to the upside.
Through the FOMC decision, a move into and through that area on the downside, would increase the bearish bias. Breaking below would next target the rising 100 hour moving average at 0.9918. The price has not traded below its 100 hour moving average since June 3. A move below the 100 hour moving average would open the door for a rotation down toward 0.9865 to 0.9871.
On the topside, on more USD buying (a more hawkish Fed) getting through the high from yesterday at 1.0036 would have traders looking toward the extremes from May between 1.0048 and 1.00637. Move above those highs, and the price would be trading at the highest level since May 2019. The high price in 2019 reached up to 1.0233. Depending on how hawkish the Fed is, that could ultimately be the next major target on further upside momentum.
