The USDJPY corrected lower today and looked intent on moving down to test some key support targets near the 133.00 area (high from Tuesday, 38.2%), but could only get to 133.175 before bouncing higher.
The move back higher has taken the high back toward the closing level from yesterday at 134.24. The high corrective price moved to 134.30. The price is currently trading at 130.21.
The sellers took a shot, but missed the target.
What next?
Drilling down to the 5 minutes chart below, the move to the downside today saw the pair first move back below both the 100/200 bar MAs and retraced about 61.8% of the last trend move to the upside (to 133.163).
Since then, the rebound back higher has seen the price first waffle above and below the same 100/200 bar moving averages. However, the last spike to the upside - and then corrective move to the downside - held support against the 200 bar moving average. Bullish once again.
Both the 100 and 200 bar moving averages are near converged now at 133.86. In the short-term, as long as the price can remain above that converged MA level, the buyers remain in control. The sellers are not winning.
So the sellers on the hourly chart had their shot at taking back more control by moving below the 38.2% and high from Tuesday. They failed. On the shorter term 5 minute chart, the sellers also took their shot, but once the price based at the 61.8% and moved back above the 100/200 bar MAs, the sellers have lost their short term edge. Buyers are, therefore, in full control with a move below the converged 100/200 bar MA on the 5 minute, the closest victory for them at 133.878.
What should be taking some of the heat off the upside in the USDJPY, is the solid 30 year auction. The 30 year yield is down to 3.17% from a high of 3.21% and 3.20% at the auction. However, there was not a lot of selling after the results, and the upside in the USDJPY has resumed.
Watch the technical levels as the hopes from dip in rates is not exactly working.
