The Lavrov comments followed by the Bullard comments helped to push the USDJPY higher. The first was a move out of the "safety of the JPY" flows, and the 2nd push was on the run-up in yields . The 10 year yield saw a move back up to 1.986% (just below that level now). The 10 year moved to 1.903% at the low today.
Looking at the hourly chart, the initial move today was back to the lows from Friday. The low both on Friday - and again today - saw the price dip below a swing area between 115.033 to 115.11. The low (like the EURUSD) bottomed at a nice natural round number of 115.00. Rightly or wrongly, there tends to be traders that lean against the "big figures". That is evident today.
The run back to the upside took the price back above the 200 hour MA (green line at 115.27) and moved up to a high of 115.54. The 100 hour MA looms ahead at 115.624. There is a swing area between 115.616 and 115.671 (see blue numbered circles). On Friday, the pair cracked below that swing area and moving average too, and ran to the downside helped by the news of a potential imminent invasion from Russia into Ukraine.
That area is a key upside resistance barometer in much the same way that the swing area below (green numbered circles) is a lower support barometer.
Taking a broader look at the price action in 2022, the high from last week stalled right near the high from early January (double top).
On the downside, the low from January 14 was tested on January 24 (double bottom).
So there is some symmetry to the price action. In between there also are some risk defining swing areas (see yellow areas) that traders will use as support/resistance as a maneuver through the ups and downs from fundamental news and from the technical flows. At some point there will be a break outside of the range but for now, the prices more in the "meat" of the ups and downs.
