The USDJPY has moved up over 1.0% on the day and in the process is pushing up to the 2015 high at 125.851. The high for the day reached 125. 764. The price has backed off to 125.54 currently as traders lean as risk can be defined and limited against the key level. A move above the 125.85 high would take the price of the highest level since 2002.
A move lower off of the risk defining level on the daily chart, would have traders looking toward the 125.27 level which was a another swing high going back to 2015. That area (see red numbered circles in the chart above) will be influential from a short-term technical perspective. Stay above and push through the highs is likely this week. Move below we could see further downside probing.
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the high price in the USDJPY today is also testing the underside of a broken trend line.
On the corrective move lower from the March 28 high, saw the USDJPY price move below the 100 hour MA (blue line), an upward sloping trend line, and stalled initially at the 200 hour MA (green line on March 30).
On March 31, the price fell below the 200 hour MA for the first time since March 7, but rebounded and moved up to retest the broken trendline. The underside was also sniffed on April 1.
During the move higher, the price of the USDJPY has also stayed above the 200 hour MA since April 1 (retested and held on April 4 and April 5). The price declines last week sniffed the 100 hour MA (blue line) on Monday and Tuesday but found support buyers near that level as well. All those are bullish bias moves and kept the buyers in control.
With the underside of the broken trendline and the key swing high going back to 2015 near the same level, it of course increases the levels importance going forward. Stay below and there could be a rotation back toward the the 125.27 level on the daily chart followed by the 125.093 swing high going back to March 28. Move below both those levels, and the buyers on the break higher would be disappointed and we could see a retracement corrective rotation to the downside gather some more steam.
Until then however, the buyers still have the upper hand.
Looking at the spread between the US 10 year and the Japan 10 year, the spread today widened to the highest level since May 2019 which is contributing to the run up in the USDJPY.