The USDJPY traded to a new session low in the current hourly bar and in the proces retested its 200 hour moving average currently at 144.11 (green line). The low price just reached 144.148. Buyers against the moving average have pushed the price back up to 144.326 currently.
The price last traded near the 200 hour moving average back on Friday, September 23 and last Monday, September 26. The price based against that moving average on Monday, September 26 and remained above since then. It would take a move below the 200 hour moving average followed by a break below 143.805 (swing lows near September 26 and September 28) to increase the bearish bias in the short term. The 38.2% retracement of the move up from the post intervention on low from September 22 cuts across at 143.408 and would be another downside target that would need to be broken and stay broken to increase the bearish bias. PS That is also near the low price from September 26 increasing that level's importance.
What would be the risk for sellers looking for more downside?
Traders looking for more downside would not want to see the price move back above its 100 hour moving average at 144.613. A move back above would have traders looking once again toward the 145.000 level.
