Technical sellers hit oil on the break of the Monday low of $115.55 and we're now $13 off the intraday highs today. That's an incredible reversal and puts more downside in focus.
It's falling very fast at the moment with a low of $111.80.
Update: Oil is falling faster than I can write and touched $103.80 at the low -- that's a $23 intraday drop and one of the largest moves of all time. You know there are problems in the global commodity market when oil goes 'no bid'.
I think this was a technical move as it came on the break of that key $115.55 level.
On the fundamental side, the UAE was talking about OPEC+ producing more crude (they're always talking about that) and Zelensky was talking about a deal (he's been saying that for two days). Iraq is also saying it can increase output if OPEC+ requires but the oil minister added that the market is currently balanced. I don't think those are real catalysts but take your pick if you prefer. For instance, Iraq isn't producing to its OPEC quota now. In February it produced 4.23m bpd compared to a quota of 4.325m bpd. It also fell short in January.
In any case, this is one of the craziest moves in oil you'll ever see. Obviously, the drop into negative territory is still fresh in our memories but aside from that, there haven't been many moves like this in the history of the market.
WTI crude oil last at $108.60.
