Crude Oil recently managed to break above the 80$ resistance but found another strong resistance around the $83 level. The fundamentals remained pretty much unchanged. In fact, on the demand side the last month string of weaker economic data was replaced by stronger figures recently, with the latest US Manufacturing PMI still pointing to a reacceleration in activity. On the supply side, we still have the OPEC+ voluntary output cuts until the end of Q2 and the tensions in the Red Sea, although this is likely already priced in.
WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that Crude Oil broke through the $80 level and extended the rally into the key resistance around the $83 level where we can also find the upper bound of the rising channel. This is where the sellers stepped in to position for a drop into the lower bound of the channel. The buyers will need to break this resistance to start targeting the next resistance around the $93 level.
If the price continues to pull back from these levels, we can expect the buyers to lean on the black trendline where they will also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the lower bound of the channel.
WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has been ranging between the $83 resistance and the $80.50 support where we have also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. The buyers will likely continue to step in around the support to position for a break above the resistance with a better risk to reward setup. If the price were to break lower though, the buyers should lean on the trendline as they will have an even better risk to reward setup.
WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price is now trading right around the support zone. This is where the buyers will look for a bounce and will likely increase the bullish bets into the resistance if the price were to break above the $81.50 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the support to increase the bearish bets into new lows with the trendline as the first target.
Upcoming Events
Today we have Fed’s Waller speaking where the market will want to see if he sounds hawkish after the recent economic data. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude with the US PCE and Fed Chair Powell. Weak data is likely to weigh on Crude Oil, while strong figures should give it a boost.
