The big event of the week is nearly upon us so let's take a look at the people who matter at the ECB meeting and what their view on monetary policy are
Let me set out the ground rules;
There's 25 members of the governing council. Of that, 6 are on the executive board and 19 are the central bank heads from the Eurozone. All 25 members are present at the meetings. The executive board always has a vote and a rotation is in place for the other 19, so only 15/19 have an actual vote each meeting.
The important part: Council meetings rarely get to the point of having to vote. In concert with Draghi, Peter Praet will effectively table a proposal for action which all 25 members will give a view on. Draghi will look to take the consensus view. If that view is for a formal vote then that will happen, otherwise he can just run with the balance of views in deciding what action to take. It's really up to Draghi, through Praet, to decide how strong they want to go and therefore what may or may not swing support their way
So who are the 25 members and what have they been saying?
Let's start with the executive board
Mario Draghi - Dove
Not much needs to be said. he's Mr Do Whatever It takes. He's given us what the ECB is looking at in it's tool box and now it's time for his sales pitch
Vitor Constancio - Dove
Draghi's right hand man and probably his strongest ally, always looking down not up and said the Dec decision would be based on the latest inflation data available.
We know how that went from the latest inflation numbers
He's not afraid to do more and is not worried about negative rates
Sabine Lautenschlager - Hawk
German. Need I say more. Definitely in the wait and see brigade and worried about the risks of doing more
Benoit Coeure - Dove
Another in Draghi's dove club. While happy to pump he's been keeping more of an eye on the risks of loose policy recently
Another pessimist on downside risks and said he wants to see the data into Dec. His strongest comment came before QE even started
"If we haven't achieved what we want to achieve, then we'll have to do more, or we have to do it for longer"
Yves Mersch - Central
Wasn't overly convinced about QE from the start but has said it's been successful and the economy is showing resilience. He doesn't give much away but always wants to examine the story so far, look at the long term picture and wants to be fully prepared before taking the next steps, whatever they are. His comments are usually all 'the ECB this and the ECB that' rather than 'I think'
Peter Praet - Dove
The ECB's chief economist and probably one of the most worried about inflation expectations becoming de-anchored
The 19 other members of the council
I'll go with the voters first
Jens Weidmann (Germany) - Hawks hawk
Wait and see. Definite no camp
Luis Maria Linde (Spain) - Hawk
No reason to change for the moment (Sep) But is open to adjusting QE if needed
Ignazio Vosco (Italy) - Dove
Klaas Knot (Netherlands) - Hawk
In 'wait and see' mode and unlikely to agree to more
Ardo Hansson (Estonia) - Hawk (Could have German blood in him)
Definite no camp. But changed his tune from "doesn't see any convincing reason" in Oct, to "no reason to act now but could be convinced" last week. He also said that there was no need to lower the deposit rate yet
Patrick Honohan (Ireland) - Central
Wants the ECB to keep their foot on the accommodative pedal but is happy with results so far
Yannis Stournaras (Greece) - Probably ignored
No real news on his stance. Not benefitting directly as the ECB aren't buying their bonds. On the hook to the ECB anyway so probably gets told to make the tea
Chrystalla Georghaji (Cyprus) - Carries the milk and sugar for Stournaras
Another country not
eligible for QE. ECB started buying Cyprus bonds in July. She's also had other fish to fry with some conflicts of
interest allegations against her. Hasn't commented on mon pol much, or ever, as far as I can see
Vistas Vasiliauskas (Lithuania) - Central/dovish
Was in wait and see mode back in Sep but only until the Dec meeting
Ilmars Rimsevics (Latvia) - Hawk
One man the Germans can count on for support, wanted to wait another 6 months in Oct
Gaston Reinesch (Luxembourg) - Who?
Don't think we've ever had a peep from him. No idea what his stance is
Joself Bonnici (Malta) - Central/Hawk
Wait and see mode
He also said in Sep that expectations for more ECB action were overdone. Was worried about the strength of the euro about a year ago so is probably less stressed now
Ewald Nowotny (Austria) - Central
We're never short of a quote from Uncle Ewald. He usually likes to pop up in the midst of a euro rally to snuff it out. But he always bigs up the effects of current mon pol without actually giving us any real clues on what his stance is. He does believe in it wholeheartedly. His main push is for structural and fiscal reforms. On the QE/Mon pol front he seems happy to go along for the ride but mentioned in Oct that it was too soon to talk of a time extension
Carlos Costa (Portugal) - Central
Another one from a program country, although doing well to come out the other side. Doesn't offer much comment on the mon pol side of things
Bostjan Jazbec (Slovenia) - Hawk
Another member on the Germans Christmas card list. Early in Nov he said he doesn't see the need for more stimulus and is one who sees the economy improving
The non voters
Francois Villeroy de Galhau (France) - Dove
Successor of Christian Noyer, who remained in the hawkish camp through his last moments, Galhau is signing a different song
Jan Smets (Belgium) - Dove
All tools are on the table, he said last month
Jozef Makuch (Slovakia) - Central/Hawkish
Last said QE was flexible enough and to say more would be speculative (Sep)
Erki Liikanen (Finland) - Central/Dovish
Committed to the cause but not gung-ho. Ready to extend and in the pessimist camp on risks to the Eurozone
And there we have it. That's the team sheet for the meeting and we have;
- 7 outright hawks
- 7 outright doves
- 4 middle of the road
- 2 central/doves
- 2 central/hawks
- 2 fetching the teas
- 1 Unknown
Draghi's battle is to see how far he can push to swing the consensus his way but it's also a matter of dealing with the countries that carry the most weight. His main task will be marginalising or soothing the concerns of big opponents like the Germans
Whatever happens it's sure to be a show worth watching when the clock ticks 12.45GMT