December hike odds at 66%
For all the excitement about Friday's non-farm payrolls report the implied probability of a hike in December has only risen to 66% from 56% on Thursday.
For January, the odds calculated from Fed funds futures contracts sit at 70% from 62%.
To me, the comments from the Fed's Evans today were a big tell. He sounded almost resigned to a hike in December. He's a major dove and has been fighting for lower rates for longer but he hinted that he wouldn't dissent on a hike.
To me that says he sees the battle as already lost and is focused on fighting subsequent hikes.
The US dollar is under some pressure today and I think it's an opportunity to buy.
