The path of future Federal Reserve rate hikes is getting more attention now
Earlier I posted on Goldman Sachs' view of the likelihood of 100 bp of hikes from the US central bank over the next year (to be fair to GS they say the risks to this forecast are on the downside ... I concur)
Also, from Fed-watcher Tim Duy who says
- The Fed is set to declare "Mission Accomplished" at the next FOMC meeting.
They are gonna hike ...
- barring an outright collapse in financial markets, it is very difficult to see the data evolve between now and December 15-16 in such a way that the Fed suddenly has a change of heart.
On the path from here:
- Even though officials have not committed to a specific path, I am working with a baseline of 100bp of tightening between now and next December, or roughly 25bp every other meeting.
