"The reason for NAB's view of no change in the cash rate stem primarily from analysis that the RBA's forecasts for growth and inflation will not have materially altered since the Board last met in July, and indeed since the last set of published RBA forecasts, released in May."
The market has continued to price toward the likelihood that the RBA will cut rates again at tomorrow's Board meeting, pricing in this morning a 64% chance of an easing, with 36 of 47 economists surveyed by Reuters on Friday forecasting a cut this week.
NAB continues to expect that the RBA will, after due consideration, agree to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.75%. Market price reaction will likely be greater in the event the RBA leaves rates on hold.
The reason for NAB's view of no change in the cash rate stem primarily from analysis that the RBA's forecasts for growth and inflation will not have materially altered since the Board last met in July, and indeed since the last set of published RBA forecasts, released in May. Nor are international factors or market conditions suggesting new downside risks. When the Board met last month, the Governor's Media Statement stated that "holding monetary policy steady would be prudent at this meeting ..... (and that) ...... "over the period ahead, further information should allow the Board to refine its assessment of the outlook for growth and inflation and to make any adjustment to the stance of policy that may be appropriate."
That assessment for growth and inflation, NAB expects, will not have materially altered since the Board last met. Last week's key CPI release for the June quarter revealed headline inflation of 1.0% y/y and underlying inflation of 1½%, inflation predicted in its May Statement on Monetary Policy.
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Here is more on the RBA today:
- My preview earlier
via Business Insider
And more:
- MNI on the RBA today - house view is for a cut
- What's in store for AUDUSD as we head towards the RBA?
- RBA to disappoint and AUDUSD will go above 0.80
- Reserve Bank of Australia meeting tomorrow - here comes another cut!