A research piece via Capital Economics, 'We now expect the Board to cut the cash rate to 1.25% at the upcoming meeting.

  • Even if the Bank doesn't cut in May, we doubt it will wait much longer before providing additional stimulus.'

CE begin by noting from the most recent RBA minutes:

  • the Bank discussed a scenario where "inflation did not move higher and unemployment rate trended up". The Board noted that in that case a decrease in the cash rate was likely appropriate.

And go on to say on inflation, that there:

  • are now obvious signs that the slowdown in the economy is diminishing price pressures

And on the labour market:

  • the continued fall in job advertisements suggests that the unemployment rate will start to rise again before long

CE say that after a cut in May:

  • we think rates will fall to 0.75% by year-end

(Summary from a detailed CE note)

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Three rate cuts by year end I cannot see at all. Getting one out of this mob is like pulling teeth as it is.