The European Central Bank meeting is today; here is a very auikc preview from Nomura, via eFX
In brief:
- Nomura doesn't expect the ECB to announce any changes to its monetary policy
- Expects the Governing Council to maintain its dovish rhetoric
- To keeping the door firmly open to doing more
- No explicit signal expected that it definitely takes place at the next meeting on 3 December
"Any reference that the Governing Council will closely monitor and continuously assess the appropriateness of its monetary policy stance taking into account new information and analysis, will likely keep market expectations focused on the potential for action at the December meeting. As such, the strength of the ECB's emphasis on the importance of the December Eurosystem staff projections and tolerance for any potential downgrades will also be in focus and may help influence market expectations on the likelihood of action on 3 December," Nomura argues.
"The Governing Council will likely communicate again it is willing and ready to act, if warranted. We also expect the ECB to continue to highlight the flexibility within its asset purchase programme (APP) should it be necessary to respond. This would continue to point to the next round of easing focused on the size, composition and duration of the APP, rather than any move at this stage towards a further deposit rate cut," Nomura adds.
