The Swiss National Bank policy announcement is due at 0830GMT on Thursday December 10
Barclays say the SNB is likely to leave policy on hold
Following the ECB's policy under-delivery, we now expect no change in SNB policy. When we originally proposed that the SNB would remove the exemption from negative deposit rates for the majority of domestic banks' sight deposits - its "nuclear" option - it was conditional on the ECB taking aggressive action that would increase downside pressure on EURCHF
Barclays now expect the SNB to take a "wait and see" approach to accompanyto the "less aggressive" ECB
- Also expect a significant increase in the SNB's FX reserve data (for announcement on Monday) ... expect "most of the move to be driven by valuation effects owing to the CHF's NEER depreciation in November"
On the CHF:
- Barclays see further depreciation of the CHF versus both the USD and the EUR
- Are reviewing their forecasts
- Have closed their long USDCHF trade
From a Barclays client note
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Bonus ... comments on the USD
- Think that this week it should remain supported (except vs European currencies) "as markets move to fully price a December hike, something we think is highly likely after the NFP report that confirmed a healthy trend of job creation"
