The Bank of Canada decision is due at 10 am ET (1400 GMT), there will be no updated forecasts and no press conference

Economists at BNP Paribas are the only ones expecting the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates to 0.25% from 0.50% today. Twenty-three other firms surveyed by Bloomberg expect no change but that wouldn't mean a lack of intrigue from the BOC.

Here's what BNP Paribas said:

"Slightly firmer GDP and employment data has left the market reluctant to price in immediate BoC easing but our economists are sticking with their non-consensus view amid a recessionary economy and continued weakness in oil prices," BNPP wrote yesterday.

Poloz has delivered two surprise rate cuts this year and both hinged on lower growth forecasts. He's unlikely to cut today because Q2 GDP matched the BOC forecast and other numbers -- especially employment -- have been solid.

Whether Poloz cuts further depends on Q3 and Q4 growth. The BOC forecasts a 1.5% annualized rate in Q3, leading to a solid pickup and full-year growth of 1%, rising to 2.5% in 2016 and 2017. It won't be until those numbers are shown to be incorrect that Poloz will pull the trigger.

From his earlier moves, we also know that Poloz doesn't feel a need to send a signal to markets before moving. That means that even if he doesn't provide an explicit hint about the October 21 decision, it's still on the table.

Market pricing

The OIS market is pricing a 17% chance of a cut today, down from 44% in late August when oil was at $37 and global markets were in a panic.

Probabilities continue to increase through year-end. The OIS market shows a 23% chance of a cut in October and 47.5% in December.

USD/CAD

Poloz has a habit of relentless optimism despite poor economic numbers and that kind of talk is likely to weigh on USD/CAD.

In addition, the basis for his optimism over the past year was the expectation that Canadian exports would begin to rise. When they didn't, he lamented the "serial disappointment" from the sector.

However, he finally got some evidence of a pickup as June and July exports recorded the fast two-month increase since 2011.

Oil and a broader US dollar rally are key considerations for USD/CAD traders today but -- all else being equal -- I see the potential for a slide in USD/CAD.