Everyone believes it's only the weather.
Deutsche Bank is out with a note brushing aside estimates that first quarter US growth will be around 1.0%.
"There has been a recent tendency for Q1 GDP to disappoint, only to rebound strongly thereafter," analysts write.
If there is a sustained slowdown that start in the first quarter it will catch everyone by surprise. The Fed is boosting the dollar in a move that's hurting the dollar because they believe it's only temporary.
It's tough to fight the consensus on the weather and a rebound because the US economy looks like it's in solid shape, at least relative to the rest of the world, and boosting rates up a few basis points shouldn't derail a recovery.
Another consensus believe is that disinflation is temporary. It's backed up by the decline in commodity prices but the Fed isn't doing a very good job to guard against disinflationary expectations becoming entrenched. They've gone so far as to brush aside breakevens.
That's a lot of hopium.
