Yellen's message after the announcement is going to be just as, or maybe more important, than the announcement itself
Hawkish, Dovish, neutral, how is Yellen going to spin the hike?
The broad consensus around the market is that this hike is going to be a very dovish hike. The problem is that it can't be too dovish or it will be self defeating.
I think that the hike and initial statement will start by being hawkish by praising the economy and thus the reason for raising. Then it will be followed by the presser in which Yellen will try to reel in some of that hawkishness
We've got a similar situation to the ECB where we get the announcement and then a 30 minute wait until the presser.
Here's 5 scenarios of how she spins the hike, and then the path going forward. What's your choice?
- Hawkish start - Dovish finish
- Dovish start - Hawkish finish
- Hawkish all the way
- Dovish till the wings fall off
- Neutral throughout
Which animal gets the love today?
