ANZ on the Reserve Bank of Australia:
- "The timing of the election is a complication for the RBA"
- "While the Bank will lift rates if the case is compelling, no matter the timing, (RBA Governor Philip) Lowe would likely prefer not to raise rates either just before or just after an election. The RBA did cut rates in 2019 just after the election, but cutting is much more palatable than hiking."
The election in Australia is imminent, it must be held on or before 21 May 2022. Media reports on the most recent hint from the Prime Minister points to May 14. Which would take it just about to the wire.
This week the incumbent government announced its budget. This containted many sweet $$$ treats for the voters. Some might call them bribes.
Anyway, back to the RBA. The earliest I have seen (reasonably) tipped for a rate hike is June. Polling (Reuters) shows the expectations for the first rate hike:
- 10 of 27 said June
- 12 of 27 said August
- 5 were divided between September and November
Earlier posts this week:
Its been a while ....
