- Monetary policy must remain on tightening path
- Recession is already a baseline scenario but it should be a shallow one
That's a hawkish take but considering the dire economic outlook, I'll take this with a pinch of salt. The ECB looks to still be able to pencil in a rate hike in December and perhaps one more after. However, if the economic situation deteriorates rapidly going into next year, it will be no surprise to see the ECB turn tail and put a stop to the rate hikes in Q1 2023.
