It's one of the rare times when it's better to own the bitcoin ETF than the underlying.
A panic went through the market on the weekend and bitcoin fell as low as $17,705 from $20,400 at the time of the US equity close on Friday. In the past 24 hours it's made a total recovery and is trading at $20,358.
Bitcoin fell for 12 straight days before the bounce. It's impossible to catch a falling knife like that but as I wrote yesterday -- bear market bounces can be extremely powerful.
This move to the downside likely flush all the weak hands below $20,000. In bitcoin, the fundamentals pretty much are the price action and if it starts to move to the upside, the HODLers could start chasing the bounce. Anyone who didn't get flushed on the weekend isn't like the to sell now (thought the ETF holders and others shut out on the weekend could add some selling pressure).
The level I'm watching now is Friday's high of $21,325. If it can get above that, we could see a quick move up to $23,000. The crypto market certainly isn't wanting for drama.
If I look back at the signs of a bottom (at least a short term one), what stands out for me is how much of the online weekend conversation was dunking on crypto. Usually when people are writing the premature (and celebratory) obituaries is a good time to buy.