Here is a really quick preview of what investment banks are expecting from the ECB meeting today.

(ps. I have already done 3 mini-previews, posted yesterday:

Euro: The ECB meeting is on Thursday … but … “What would ECB disappointment look like?”

Euro: The ECB meeting is on Thursday … previews and positioning from Citi and Morgan Stanley

Euro: The ECB meeting is on Thursday … Here are 5 things to look out for)

Band of America/Merrill Lynch:

  • Says ABS purchases will take place most likely before the end of 2014
  • Adds to look for QE before June 2015

BNP Paribas

  • Looking for 10bps cut in both the depo & refi rate
  • Says it is too soon for QE
  • Expect minor downward revisions to the ECB’s growth and inflation projections


  • Do not expect a move on iterest rates
  • Adds that QE is more likely than not, saying even more strongly that QE is now their base case scenario

Goldman Sachs

  • Says to expect key interest rates to be unchanged
  • No additional non-standard measures to be announced (i.e. no QE)

JP Morgan:

  • looking for a 10 10 bps cut
  • Expects a cut in interest rate corridor by 10bps, which will make the upcoming TLTROs “more generous”
  • And says that plans for ABS purchases could also be accelerated & expanded into other asset classes


  • looking for a 10 10 bps cut
  • Indeed, expects a cut in all key interest rates by a further 10bp … “thereby delivering a larger negative deposit rate (-0.20%) as well as a refi rate even closer to zero (0.05%)”
  • Looking further out, they expect the ECB to announce and launch an ABS purchase program by December at the latest


  • Looking for a 10bps rate cut to all rates
  • They say that “QE is clearly possible now, we still do not view it as probable”
  • “Draghi will almost certainly reiterate that preparations for an ABS purchase programme are ongoing, but we do not expect that to be ready for launch until Q1 next year”

TD Securities:

  • The market is pricing in a nontrivial probability of further policy easing by the ECB, and our own call is for a better than 50% chance of a policy rate cut between 10bps and 15bps
  • Beyond the change the policy rate, the big question will be whether Draghi provides any hints of further efforts to stem the erosion in inflation momentum, both implied and actual