I've posted 4 items as a preview of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting today, so I'll keep this quick here.


Previous posts:

  • RBA meeting this week-NAB's 6 reasons the central bank will remain on hold
  • RBA meeting this week-Westpac on what to expect (Spoiler ... Hold)
  • Australian weekend press: RBA may need to cut rates in November, economists say
  • UBS on central banks in the week ahead - BOE, BOJ and RBA meetings, plus Fed, ECB
  • -

    For today ... it's a near certainty the RBA will leave rates on hold.

    'Near' ... note that with global market volatility, the Fed remaining on hold, concerns over China, signs of a softening housing market in Australia, and more, each meeting is 'live' and we could be surprised. The RBI last week surprised, for example, with a 50 basis point cut. Different country, different issues facing its central bank ... but nevertheless, food for thought from India. A surprise in Australia, though, it would be, and not just to me. All 27 forecasts from the latest Bloomberg survey are for an on hold decision. OIS pricing is at 34% for a 25 basis point cut ... which is slightly at odds with the surveyed analysts.

    The RBA will be issuing revised forecasts for the economy in November. If there is to be a change in rates its likely to be in response to a change in RBA forecasts, which makes November a more likely meeting for change (should the bank assess one is needed) than today's October meeting.