RBA monetary policy meeting Tuesday 03 August 2021 - preview

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: Central Banks

The Reserve Bank of Australia announcement and Governot Lowe's statement are due at 0730 GMT. 

Earlier:

TD:
  • The RBA's 'Recovery to Expansion' narrative no longer holds given the prolonged Sydney lockdown. GDP and unemployment rate downgrades in the August SoMP will lend a dovish tone. We expect the Bank to reverse their September taper with QE staying unchanged at A$5 B from Sep'21. 
  • We shift our call on the stock under Flexible QE from 'up to A$100 B' to A$130 B.
(ps. SoMP is the Reserve Bank of Australia's Statement on Montary Policy which is due on Friday this week - August 6 at 0130 GMT. I'll have more to come on this as we approach Friday)

Société Générale:
  • We expect that the policymakers will announce to postpone the tapering until the recovery of the economy from the current outbreak is confirmed. 
  • The RBA will also revise its GDP forecasts to reflect the impacts from the current outbreak: cutting the growth in 2021 and raising the growth in 2022. A good deal of uncertainties in both the economy and monetary policy due to COVID-19 outbreak is likely to persist until 4Q21.
The Reserve Bank of Australia announcement and Governot Lowe's statement are due at 0730 GMT. 



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