BOE Governor Andrew Bailey caricature

BOEs Bailey on the wires saying:

  • We are pretty much on track for where we thought we would be in February on inflation.
  • I expect next month's inflation number will show quite a strong drop
  • The effect of the Mideast conflict is less than feared

The year ago next month, the month-on-month reading showed a 1.6% gain. When that drops out of the equation next month, it will lower the YoY rate significantly. It's just the math. Hence Bailey's confidence on the inflation trend next month.