Reserve Bank of Australia February meeting minutes.

  • Board considered case to hike by 25 bps or to hold steady.
  • Case to hold steady was the stronger one, appropriate given balanced risks to outlook.
  • Data gave board more confidence inflation would return to target in reasonable timeframe.
  • However, it would "take some time" before board could be confident enough on inflation.
  • So, board agreed it was appropriate not to rule out another rise in rates.
  • Board noted hiking rates would not prevent it from cutting should economy weaken.
  • Noted forecasts of inflation back in target in 2025 assumed no further rate hikes.
  • Goods inflation had fallen faster than expected, service inflation still high.
  • Data on labour market, consumption had been weaker than expected.
  • High inflation, higher tax, and interest payments had weighed on consumption.
  • Labour market relatively tight, wage growth slowing in some sectors.
  • Financial conditions restrictive on some measures, less so on others.

Since this meeting we've heard from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock, which takes some of the relevancy out of the minutes

Still, use those points as a summary of where we are at. But, I can't believe the RBA seriously discussed a rate hike at this meeting. Sure, they can't 'rule it out', but that'd be a pretty dark coloured swan at this stage.

black swan 2