With the plan for a referendum dead, the confidence vote is being hailed as the last hurdle for Greece. In a sense this is true because if it passes today, it means Greece will likely get the latest aid tranche and will implement the agreed reforms.
The initial reaction will be risk positive and I suspect it will last through the close but I would be very weary of holding trades through the weekend.
The support from the opposition for the bailout deal is coming with a price tag. The likely cost will be Papandreou stepping down and snap elections.
Anything goes in an election when the public is as riled up as Greece. The people may view opposition support for the reforms as a betrayal and lean toward more radical parties.
I can’t see any scenario where EUR strengthens during a Greek election campaign.
