April: +0.9% m/m, +22.1% y/y
MNI median: +1.4% m/m
MNI range: -0.8% to +2.4% m/m
March: +5.1% m/m (revised from +5.2%)
February: +2.6% m/m (revised from +1.9%)
January: -1.3% m/m (revised from -1.5%)
December: +1.8% m/m (revised from +1.3%)
November: +1.6% m/m (revised from +3.0%) —
PARIS (MNI) – Eurozone industry orders rose less than generally
expected in April, as new demand for intermediate goods was offset by
declines in other branches, Eurostat said Thursday.
Taking into account backward revisions, the 0.9% monthly increase
left orders 22.1% higher on the year. However, order levels were still
nearly 20% below highs seen before the financial crisis.
Orders for heavy transport equipment, which are often quite
volatile with little immediate impact on output, fell in April after a
strong rebound in March. Excluding this category, industry orders rose
1.1% on the month and were 23.1% higher on the year.
Orders for intermediate goods remained dynamic in April, rising
another 1.7% after three months of robust gains for a 33.2% increase on
the year.
By contrast, capital goods orders slipped back 0.8% after a 5.8%
leap in March, giving an 18.1% rise on the year. Orders for consumer
durables and non-durables dropped 0.9% and 2.1% on the month,
respectively, but were still 11.2% and 3.5% above previous-year levels.
Demand continued to recover in May, producers polled by the
European Commission reported. However, their assessment of order book
levels was still far below the long-term average for both total and
foreign orders. Firms remained cautiously optimistic about future export
levels.
Despite the ongoing improvement in demand, the momentum of the
recovery may have already peaked, as public stimulus programs begin to
wind down. The latest factory PMI poll confirmed the slowdown in new
order growth from a heady 59.5 in April to 55.8 in June.
Fiscal tightening is likely to weigh on growth and demand in some
of Europe’s export markets over the course of this year and dampen
Eurozone activity next year.
Among the larger economies, Italy registered the strongest demand
in April, with a rise of 5.9% that left orders 22.4% higher on the year.
Manufacturers’ assessment of total orders rose further in May to a
20-month high, reflecting mainly an ongoing improvement in domestic
demand, according to Isae’s monthly poll.
Orders in Germany rose another 3.3% on the month after remarkably
strong gains over the previous three months, giving a 32.4% annual
increase that was surpassed only by the Netherlands (+45.3%). National
data showed strong gains in both domestic and foreign demand, despite a
decline of orders from other Eurozone countries.
Germany’s impressive industry recovery and the rebound in
construction activity after the harsh winter should assure exceptionally
strong GDP growth in 2Q. Manufacturers’ assessment of current activity
continued to improve in June, according to Ifo’s survey. However,
expectations at the six-month horizon have begun to erode from the
four-year high hit earlier this spring, echoing the outlook of financial
analysts polled by ZEW.
In France, orders fell back 3.4% in April, retracing roughly half
the leap in March, for a 8.4% rise on the year. National data showed a
setback in demand for heavy transport equipment after a surge in March
and a modest 0.3% increase in orders for other branches, with domestic
demand offsetting a 1.4% drop in foreign orders.
The Bank of France’s monthly survey suggested that industry order
growth slowed in May for the second month in a row. Manufacturers polled
by Insee this month also said that total orders had deteriorated after
five straight months of gains, despite the ongoing improvement in
foreign demand.
In Spain orders plunged 5.3% on the month, more than erasing the
two previous months’ gains, for a 6.7% increase on the year.
Elsewhere, monthly results were quite mixed, with order gains in
the Netherlands (+6.2%), Ireland (+4.2%) and Slovenia (+0.3%), and
setbacks in Greece (-5.4%) and Slovakia (-1.8%).
–Paris newsroom +331 4271 5540; e-mail: paris@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$X$$$,M$XDS$]
