The AUDUSD has been above to remain above the 200 day MA so far today. That level comes in at 1.20767. In 12 of the last 13 trading days, the price of the pair has touched either the 100 or 200 day MA (currently at 1.0211 and 1.0276). Today if the price stays above the 1.0276 level, it would balance the one day it tried the downside (see red day in the daily chart above). The next target level above from the daily chart comes in at 1.0367 which is the 61.8% of the 2012 high to low trading range.
The problem with today is the price action is not what you would expect on a momentum move. Looking at the hourly chart, the high was reached in the Asian session and the price has stalled. The low to high trading range is only around 36 pips. The bottom trend line off the most recent lows comes in at the 1.0276 level currently. This corresponds with the 200 day MA. A move below this level will soften the bullish bias.
Look for support bids against the 1.0276 out of respect but should the price decline below this level, the market traders may sell on the disappointment.
The EURAUD has tended to help keep the AUDUSD bid or near the high at least. Today yet another new low was reached in the pair after breaking below trend line support and then holding the 100 bar MA on th e 5 minute chart (see chart below. The new price low is at 1.1855. The 38.2%-50% of the move down today comes in at the 1.1887-1.1897. A move above would be needed to turn the tide back to the upside today. It might also have an negative influence on the AUDUSD in the process. We will see.
