Details of the August 2015 UK retail sales data report 17 September 2015

  • Prior 0.1%
  • 3.7% vs 3.8% exp y/y. Prior 4.2%
  • Ex-fuel 0.1% vs 0.1% exp m/m. Prior 0.4%
  • 3.5% vs 3.9% exp y/y. Prior 4.3%

Nothing shocking here. The ONS said sales were mainly boosted by clothing, including school uniforms (I should know with two boys and flipping school jumpers at £9 a pop). Obviously the price of fuel has been coming down with will offset most gains we may see elsewhere.The price deflator is a good indicator of that and it was down 3.3% vs -2.9% prior

There's nothing much to trade on here and the pound knows it. GBPUSD has popped under 1.55 by a few pips but we're still tight in the 1.5495-1.5525 range

Looking at the chart the trend looks more concerning and with rising wages we'd want to see retail sales picking up over the coming months. A very good gauge will be the November and December numbers due to the Christmas period. If people are finally finding their incomes improving, Xmas will be the one time they'll have a big spend up

UK retail sales y/y