August is the worst month for GBP/USD over the past 9 years
The final five months of the year are the time of discontent for cable bulls. This year is setting up much the same way as 2014. The Bank of England is talking hawkishly but the economy doesn't yet have the numbers to back it up.
The pound averaged a 1.3% monthly decline over the final six months of 2014 and if the acceleration that Carney anticipates doesn't materialize then this year will be the same.
GBPUSD seasonal heatmap
Technically, there are no clear signs of weakness yet. A series of higher lows and higher highs has been unfolding since the interim bottom in April.
That said, there are preliminary signs of a little wedge forming and if it resolves to the downside, that would be the queue to sell.
