This via Westpac on what they expect for the Australian national Accounts (GDP) data for the June quarter
My summary, in (very) brief:
- Expect +0.7% q/q and +1.7% y/y
More ... bank expects:
- domestic demand +1.0%
- inventories -0.4ppt
- net exports +0.1ppt
On domestic demand in Q2 we expect: consumer spending to expand by a brisk 1.0%; home building activity to be little changed, +0.3%; business investment to advance for a third consecutive quarter, +1.2% (the longest run of positives since 2012); and public demand to rise by 1.3%, supported by the upswing in public investment.
More:
- In the June quarter, the economy gained momentum.
- Conditions have been supported by: a hiring burst, correcting for earlier excessive weakness; a return to more normal weather conditions; a reduced drag from the mining investment downturn; as well as a stronger global backdrop
- Firms are hiring again after undue caution in 2016. In Q2, employment increased by 0.9%, including a 1.1% rise in full-time, and hours worked rose by 1.2%. Leading in to Q3, jobs momentum is positive. However, the sustainability of employment gains at this pace is questionable
- On the consumer ... The picture, at least for Q2, should be more positive, driven by rising employment. However, weak wages growth is likely to persist and remains a headwind.
