Australia data - November Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (s.a.)
Aussie consumers get more confident! Up 3.9% on the month.
- prior was +4.2% m/m
At its highest since (wait for it ....) January 2014
more to come ... yeah, here it is ... finally ...
Comments from WPAC chief economist Bill Evans ... bolding mine:
This is a cracking result
Apart from the brief surge we saw following last May's Budget this is the highest print for the Index since January 2014
Index now 8.3% higher than in September, immediately preceding the change of leadership in the government
The increase also comes despite the banks' decisions to raise mortgage rates for both owner occupiers and investors. It is surprising that such events did not have a negative impact on confidence.
It appears that such is the boost to confidence from the recent political events that the impact of the interest rate increases was comfortably contained
Evans on the RBA outlook:
- Following its November meeting the Bank has adopted a 'medium' easing bias with the low inflation environment affording scope to ease if that is deemed necessary.
- However, the Bank currently expects growth in 2016 of 3.0% (above trend) building to 3.5% in 2017.
- The positive results from this survey will only bolster these confident growth expectations.
- There is little chance of a rate cut in December. The real issue is whether the Bank will eventually act to cut rates next year - as confidently expected by the market.
- It is our current view that the growth dynamics of the Australian economy will remain sufficiently supportive through 2016 to ensure steady rates. The lift in spending expectations and confidence around the employment outlook from the survey point in that direction
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I don't have an outlook as far as Evans does (through 2016). Heck, I'm planning on eating so much at Christmas I might not even make it into 2016. But, I should be around for the December 1 RBA meeting. I put new batteries in my crystal ball and its saying 'on hold'. I'll check it with some tea leaves a bit later, but I reckon that'll be the same.
