BOC business Outlook survey for Q2 2021

The Bank of Canada business outlook survey for Q2 it's it's highs level on record:

  • Business Outlook survey (BOS) shows continued improvement in business sentiment
  • BOS indicator hits its highest level on record at 4.17 versus 2.95 in Q1
  • Firms tied to high contact services are becoming more confident that sales will pick up as vaccination rates rise, suggesting an important broadening in recovery ahead
  • Most firms report an improvement in their sales prospects year ago
  • Indicators of capacity pressures and labor shortage intensity have increased
  • Plans to invest in higher staff are widespread as firms pair to meet unexpected sales increases, suggests broadening of labor market recovery
  • The number of firms with improved indicators of future sales is at a record high signaling broad-based strengthening of demand versus a year ago
  • Balance of opinion on future sales growth tips to 47 in Q2 from 52 in Q1
  • Business expect wages, input prices and output prices to grow at a faster pace than year ago
  • Inflation expectations increase but most drivers of inflationary pressures are viewed as temporary
  • A separate BOC Q2 survey of consumer expectations says expectations for one year head inflation have increased, but consumers expect this increase to be temporary

The survey results are certainly positive and reflective of what is the trend in Covid recovery storylines.

The USDCAD has dipped a bit since report, but remains above its 200 hour moving average and 50% retracement near 1.23503. The price on Friday moved below the 200 hour moving average for the first time since June 29, and opened below that level in trading today, but moved above and stayed above over the last four trading hours. If the bias is to turn back to the downside, getting and staying below the 200 hour moving average and the 50% retracement level at 1.23503 is the obvious hurdle.

On the topside, the 100 day MA and the 100 hour MA at 1.23825 and 1.23881 are levels that would need to be broken for the bulls to take more control.